Annual global wind power capacity additions are expected to average 71 gigawatts (GW) between 2019 and 2023, and 76 GW between 2024 and 2028, according to a new analysis published Monday by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.
Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables published its Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update: Q2 2019 this week, upgrading its global wind power outlook by 11 GW from 2019 to 2028, which is a 1.5% increase from its previous-quarter update.
“A 5 GW upgrade in the global offshore sector will yield 129 GW of new capacity and a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26%,” explained Luke Lewandowski, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables Director. “Overall, the outlook is positive and global wind power continues to prosper due to both economic and social benefits.”
The larger specifics of the second-quarter Update are naturally hidden behind Wood Mackenzie’s industry-specific report costs, but the company did highlight some specifics from its report.
Firstly, the United States wind market has been upgraded by 16% over the first quarter’s forecast, helped along by a 3.8 GW upgrade in 2021 alone.
“Eligible off-takers are rallying to capitalise on the renewable electricity production tax credit (PTC) before the full value incentive expires in 2020 and then phases down,” explained Lewandowski. “Developers qualifying wind facilities in 2017 are eligible for 80% of the full credit amount, incentivising US wind market growth.
“New state-level targets in the US and the strengthening of renewable portfolio standard (RPS) mechanisms across the country is expected to support post-PTC demand.”
Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie also slightly increased its forecast for Latin America, upgrading by 1%, due to near-term upgrades in Brazil and Mexico which will be driven by Brazil’s free market and an uptick in Mexican commercial and industrial (C&I) demand in 2019.
“Northern Europe has been upgraded in our forecast by 6%,” added Lewandowski. “This should offset an otherwise dismal outlook update in Europe, as the other sub-regions combine for a 2.2.GW downgrade.
“Permitting challenges and under-subscription of onshore tenders in Germany and France have impeded growth. However, an increasing appetite for unsubsidised projects and a proliferation of demand from the C&I segment across Northern Europe both support a modest 0.6% upgrade for Europe QoQ.”
The slow pace of development in Africa thanks to political instability, immature support mechanisms, and increasing competition from solar sees projections for Africa drop 2%, while a combination of onshore and offshore policy deadlines drive a 2.9 GW boost in China’s predictions.
“Green ambitions in Africa are more prevalent than ever before,” said Lewandowski. “Renewable energy is attractive within the region, as wind and solar projects can be built much more quickly than other sources of energy. However, as solar is becoming increasingly economical, Africa’s wind market faces stiff competition.”
“[Chinese] onshore developers are rushing to comply with a new policy that requires projects to be commissioned by the end of 2020 in order to capitalise on feed-in tariffs (FIT) before a subsidy-free era begins,” Lewandowski continued. “Offshore developers must commission projects before the close of 2021 if they are to utilise the current level of offshore FIT.
“The story is not entirely positive in the APAC region, however. Current market conditions in India have bruised the region’s near-term outlook, resulting in a 4% downgrade QoQ. The government-imposed auction ceiling prices and delays in commissioning awarded projects have slowed near-term growth expectations in India considerably – a decrease of 24% from 2019 to 2022.
“Additionally, reliability concerns in Thailand have led to a 37% downgrade over the 10-year outlook, as the government’s focus has turned to other technologies,” Lewandowski concluded.